Andalo (Trento) 8 – 15 January 2020
Emerging Technologies, Evolving Nuclear Postures, and Deteriorating Norms: is the Global Nuclear Order Eroding?
Director of the School: Carlo Schaerf (Isodarco, Rome, Italy)
Directors of the Course: Francesca Giovannini (CTBTO, Vienna, Austria), Steven Miller (Belfer Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA)
With support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Raymond Frankel Foundation
The global nuclear order is undergoing major transformations. Policy makers around the world are facing complex decisions and – more importantly – costly trade-offs if strategic stability is to exist and be sustainable among nuclear-armed states. A combination of dramatic and wide ranging technological change, vigorous nuclear modernization, and the substantial waning of arms control is producing a more challenging and worrisome nuclear order. What nuclear order will arise as emerging technologies are folded into comprehensive modernization programs in an environment largely or wholly unregulated by arms control? What constitutes stable nuclear deterrence under such circumstances? What emerging technologies are most destabilizing for nuclear strategic stability? Which ones might lead to escalation across the nuclear threshold? The 59th ISODARCO course will explore the technological, military, and arms control developments that are changing and challenging the global nuclear order.